A mother and her child stand in the wreckage of their destroyed home in Toamasina, Madagascar, following a devastating cyclone. Credit: UNICEF/Tsiory Ny Aina Andriantsoarana
By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 9 2026 (IPS)
New figures from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) project that the impending 2026-2027 El Niño cycle could be one of the strongest on record. Marked by unusually wet and dry conditions, this cycle is forecast to trigger a host of extreme weather events, threatening the health, security, education, and development of over 347 million children worldwide.
“For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, and disease outbreaks. Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, emphasizing that anticipatory action is critical in protecting communities from climate shocks in the coming months.
Nearly half of the world’s children—roughly 1.1 billion—are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards, including droughts, extreme heat, and floods. The impending El Niño cycle could affect children and communities across nearly 100 countries and territories between October and December 2026.
Rohini Sampoornam Swaminathan, UNICEF Statistics and Monitoring Manager, tells IPS that children are uniquely vulnerable because of their early developmental stage and dependence on essential services and caregivers. This significantly limits their ability to withstand climate shocks, especially as basic services begin to disappear when extreme weather hits.
“Communities may not have fully recovered from one shock before another one strikes, causing the impacts to compound over time,” she said.
The Asia-Pacific region is projected to face the heaviest toll, with roughly 190 million children estimated to be at risk. Substantial populations are also critically vulnerable across East and Southern Africa, with 41 million children vulnerable to climate shocks, alongside another 41 million in Latin America and the Caribbean. Approximately 22 million children are similarly vulnerable in Europe and Central Asia, followed by 20 million in the Middle East and North Africa, and 20 million in West and Central Africa.
El Niño’s regional impacts are expected to vary significantly and could compound pre-existing humanitarian crises. Swaminathan underscored that climate shocks that are manageable in some areas can become pronounced humanitarian crises in others.
Tropical nations—such as Colombia, Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and the Philippines—are forecast to face unusually dry conditions, driving weaker agricultural outputs and severe water scarcity. This, in turn, could elevate rates of acute malnutrition and adverse health outcomes among children.
Conversely, communities in the Greater Horn of Africa could face alarmingly high levels of rainfall, particularly in Somalia, where there is a greater risk of riverine and flash flooding. Children in this region are especially vulnerable to outbreaks of water-borne diseases.
Between 2016 and 2023, weather-related disasters displaced more than 20,000 children daily. Swaminathan stressed to IPS that regions facing wetter climates could experience exacerbated displacement as floods push more communities far from their homes and into crowded, temporary shelters, which amplifies protection risks.
In protracted conflict or crisis zones such as Chad and Afghanistan, El Niño poses a direct threat to survival for children. Already bearing the burdens of extreme hunger, displacement, and an overwhelming lack of access to essential services such as protection, these children have no safety net when climate shocks ravage their communities, as they are already on the brink of collapse.
Beyond physical hazards, UNICEF’s findings highlight that disruptions to schooling are among the most alarming consequences of the impending cycle. Severe droughts and floods threaten widespread school closures, declining attendance, and rising dropout rates. In 2025 alone, extreme weather patterns interrupted education for an estimated 171 million students globally.
Swaminathan warned that climate-induced disruptions to schooling carry profound risks for children’s safety, exposing them to heightened risks of violence, exploitation, and child marriage. Girls bear the brunt of these impacts, often taking on family caregiving roles that can lead to compromised health and nutrition, as well as limited access to essential services. “When girls leave school, they are often less likely than boys to return,” she noted.
UNICEF estimates show that every US $1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention efforts can yield up to $15 in saved recovery costs. Yet less than 1 percent of humanitarian funding is allocated for anticipatory action, even with months of warning and massive projected losses.
The agency continues to call on governments, donors, and partners to invest in lifesaving anticipatory intervention before peak impacts hit vulnerable communities. UNICEF highlights building climate resilience, securing essential services, and guaranteeing humanitarian access as key priorities in its response.
Swaminathan underscored that children with disabilities, who already face persistent barriers in education, healthcare, and nutrition, must be considered in disaster preparedness. She emphasized that inclusive planning is essential in addressing structural inequalities and ensuring every region is adequately prepared.
“Despite efforts to plan for disasters, most resources are mobilized only after the damage occurs, and the focus is often on the immediate response phase of a crisis,” said Swaminathan. “With forecasts providing months of warning, UNICEF is urging governments, donors, and partners to act before needs escalate by investing early and before impacts peak. Building resilience is not only about infrastructure and early warning systems, but also about strengthening the services and institutions children rely on and addressing the inequalities that make some communities far more vulnerable to climate shocks than others.”
IPS UN Bureau Report
Construction work on the new Jangwani bridge across the flood-prone Msimbazi valley in Dar es Salaam. The elevated road is designed to keep traffic moving when heavy rains inundate the area. Credit: Kizito Makoye/IPS
By Kizito Makoye
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania, Oct 9 2026 (IPS)
Each morning on her way to Kariakoo, Clementina Nyangwine looks out of her commuter bus as it crawls through Jangwani and watches giant foundation piles rising above the muddy Msimbazi valley.
Workers in safety helmets and high-visibility vests move among towering reinforcement cages. Cranes swing over the site while excavators, concrete mixers and trucks rumble below. Deep foundations are being driven into the quagmire for a bridge that will carry one of Dar es Salaam’s busiest roads above the floodplain.
Nyangwine, a 37-year-old shopkeeper, remembers what travelling through Jangwani was like when the Msimbazi River burst its banks.
“I have spent hours here waiting for the water to go down,” she told IPS. “Sometimes we got out of the bus and walked because there was no other way to reach Kariakoo. You would arrive at work with your clothes soaked in muddy water.”
On the worst days, passengers waited on the edge of Morogoro Road as murky floodwater swept across the carriageway.
“You could not tell whether you would reach work in an hour or four hours,” Nyangwine said. “When I see this bridge coming up, I think perhaps those days are finally ending.”
The bridge is part of the Msimbazi Basin Development Project, an effort to reduce chronic flooding in Dar es Salaam as climate risks intensify.
At the centre of the work is a 390-metre bridge about eight metres above the existing road level, allowing traffic to continue moving even when the Msimbazi swells during heavy rains.
The wider construction corridor stretches for about 1.2 kilometres and includes approach roads. The bridge will be approximately 41 metres wide and will accommodate vehicles as well as pedestrians, cyclists and the Bus Rapid Transit system.
In August, the Tanzania National Roads Agency, TANROADS, said construction had reached 41 percent.
Building Above the Flood
Project manager Leonard Ngayungi said the height of the new bridge is central to its design.
“The problem with the existing crossing is that the road sits within an active floodplain,” Ngayungi told IPS. “When the Msimbazi rises, water spreads across Jangwani, and the road becomes part of the flood area. We are changing that relationship by taking the transport infrastructure above the flood level.”
The bridge is being supported by hundreds of deep foundation piles driven between 35 and 42 metres underground, depending on soil conditions. Of the roughly 496 piles required, 404 had been completed, according to officials.
Ngayungi said the aim is not simply to build a stronger road but to let the river and floodplain carry water without cutting one of the city’s main transport links.
“The bridge is being designed so that the river can flow perpetually underneath while people, buses and other vehicles continue to move above.” Ngayungi said.
“We have to build for the rainfall we may face in the future, not simply the rainfall patterns people remember from 20 or 30 years ago,” he said.
A River That Can Stop a City
The Msimbazi is a relatively small river with an outsized impact on Dar es Salaam.
Its basin is home to approximately 1.6 million people and cuts through densely populated neighbourhoods.
Near Jangwani, two of Dar es Salaam’s major traffic arteries cross the lower floodplain, including the corridor used by the city’s first Bus Rapid Transit system.
When the river floods, therefore, the consequences spread far beyond households living beside its banks.
Roads close. Buses stop. Workers arrive late. Traders lose customers. Goods cannot move easily between the city centre and its western suburbs.
Issa Majega, 56, a BRT driver on the Kariakoo-Kimara route, said heavy rain can turn a routine journey into hours of uncertainty.
“Once Jangwani floods, everybody suffers,” Majega told IPS. “The buses cannot pass, passengers become stranded and traffic builds up on other roads because everyone is looking for another route.”
For drivers, he said, the danger is knowing when to stop.
“You cannot gamble with a bus full of people when water is crossing the road,” he said. “Even if passengers are in a hurry, you have to wait.”
Majega believes the elevated crossing could remove a persistent bottleneck in the city’s transport system.
“If this bridge works as designed, rain will no longer mean that the whole route has to stop because of Jangwani,” he said.
Climate Change Meets Urban Growth
Dar es Salaam’s flooding problem cannot be blamed on rainfall alone.
Rapid urban sprawl has pushed settlements into wetlands and floodplains, while buildings and roads have reduced the land available to absorb rainwater. Rubbish chokes drainage channels, while sediment has accumulated in parts of the Msimbazi.
About 70 percent of Dar es Salaam’s residents live in informal settlements, many with inadequate drainage. In 2018, a major flood in the Msimbazi basin caused an estimated US$100 million in damage — equivalent to roughly two percent of the city’s gross domestic product, according to World Bank figures.
Deusdedit Rwehumbiza, an urban planning professor at Mkwawa University in Iringa, says that is why the project should not be understood simply as a bridge-building exercise.
“The bridge is the most visible part because everybody can see the cranes and concrete,” Rwehumbiza said. “But the real issue is how you manage an entire urban watershed.”
“The strength of the Msimbazi approach is that it treats flooding as a land-use, environmental and transport problem at the same time,” Rwehumbiza said.
The project also includes river improvements, floodplain restoration, watershed management and better solid-waste management. Parts of the lower basin are intended to become flood detention areas that temporarily hold excess water.
“That is what climate adaptation should do,” Rwehumbiza said. “You give water somewhere safe to go instead of spending every rainy season trying to fight it after it has already entered people’s homes.”
Moving People Out of Harm’s Way
Around 3,500 households living in the Msimbazi floodplain were targeted for resettlement, with US$30 million allocated for compensation. Among them was Teresia Katimba, a mother of four who moved to Madale in 2024 after years of enduring floods that repeatedly filled her Jangwani home with sewage and rubbish.
“A climate-resilient city cannot simply move risk from the river to people’s livelihoods,” Rwehumbiza said. “If families are safer from floods but cannot afford transport to work, you have solved one problem and created another.”
US$260 Million Bet on Resilience
The World Bank’s International Development Association is providing US$200 million in concessional financing, while Spain and the Netherlands are contributing additional financing that brings the package described by Tanzanian authorities to around US$260 million.
The project, scheduled to run through 2028, covers the lower Msimbazi basin and extends work farther upstream towards the Pugu Hills.
TANROADS is responsible for the Jangwani bridge works, while other government institutions are involved in the redevelopment of the wider valley.
Authorities also envisage markets, commercial development and improved public transport in the redeveloped valley.
But Rwehumbiza said the project’s success will also depend on controlling waste, sediment and development upstream.
“You can build a bridge to last many decades,” he said, “but the river is connected to everything happening upstream. Climate resilience requires maintaining the whole system.”
For commuters, the test will come on a rainy morning when the Msimbazi rises.
For years, Jangwani has represented a peculiar vulnerability in Dar es Salaam: a short stretch of road where a downpour could interrupt journeys across a metropolis of millions.
As climate change increases the risks facing fast-growing African cities, such weak points are becoming increasingly expensive.
It will not prevent heavy rain. Nor can one bridge make Dar es Salaam climate-proof.
Nyangwine still remembers stepping out of stalled buses, lifting her skirt and walking gingerly along Morogoro Road as filthy water splashed around her legs.
Occasionally she reached her Kariakoo shop hours late. Sometimes customers had already left. On the journey home, another downpour could begin the ordeal again.
Now, each time her bus passes Jangwani, she watches the workers.
“The river will still flood when the rain is heavy,” she said. “But if people can cross safely above it, then the rain does not have to stop our lives.”
IPS UN Bureau Report
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Children in Gaza wait in the hope of receiving food. Credit: UN News
By UN Women
UNITED NATIONS, Oct 9 2026 (IPS)
Since October 2023, 50,000 women and girls in Gaza have been killed or seriously injured.
• More than 38,000 women and girls have been killed and 11,700 severely injured, the result of Israeli airstrikes and land military operations.
• While most of the casualties recorded took place during the first two years of the war, women and girls continue to be targeted despite a ceasefire agreement entering into effect in October 2025. Two hundred seventy-seven women and girls are among those who have been killed in Gaza over the past year.
Nearly every woman and girl in Gaza is displaced.
• The majority of women and girls in Gaza live in tents or in the ruins, with no privacy. In conditions that are incompatible with survival and dignity, women and girls are caring for children, the sick, the injured, and for the elderly, cooking and cleaning without the basic means to carry out these responsibilities.
• Women are being forced to deliver babies in unsafe and unsanitary conditions, putting their lives at risk. At the same time, the number of miscarriages reached almost 4,000 in the first six months of 2026, triple the number recorded during the last six months of 2025.
The number of widows and those assuming the role of head of household in Gaza has doubled since October 2023.
• For women-headed households, the impact extends beyond the grief of losing a husband, father or other loved one. Many are now carrying sole responsibility for providing for, protecting, and holding their families together in increasingly devastating conditions.
Despite the ceasefire, women and girls in Gaza continue to face severely limited access to food, shelter, safe water, and hygiene supplies, alongside ongoing hostilities and insecurity.
• Restrictions on humanitarian access and bombardment continue to cause immense suffering. Between July and December 2026, an estimated 702,000 women and girls are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+, crisis or worse), with devastating effects on their health, including the risk of malnutrition [3].
The steepest recorded decline in aid is threatening a lifeline to women and girls in Gaza: women’s organizations.
• At the same time, 13 of the 14 organizations surveyed by UN Women reported that they do not have the capacity to meet the growing needs of women and girls. To cope with the lack of funding, nearly two thirds of the organizations told UN Women they had been forced to put women and girls on waiting lists or turn them away.
UN Women is on the ground in Gaza. We work with women-led and women’s rights organizations to provide lifesaving and critical support to women and girls, including protection services and gender-based violence case management, legal aid, mental health and psychosocial support, and emergency cash and livelihoods assistance.
From fitting women and girls with prosthetics and offering counselling to survivors, to ensuring that the humanitarian response is shaped by the experiences and perspectives of women and girls, our support is helping them to stay afloat. But women and girls in Gaza need peace.
UN Women calls for the ceasefire in Gaza to be fully implemented. We call for international law to be upheld, accountability for violations, and the protection of women and girls and all civilians. Humanitarian assistance must reach those in need – at scale and without obstruction. Women and girls must be placed at the centre of response and recovery efforts.
[1] The proportion was calculated by combining women and girls killed or injured (38,000 and 11,700, respectively).
[2] The proportion was calculated by dividing the combined figure of 49,700 women and girls killed or injured (38,000 and 11,700, respectively) by PCBS’s estimated female population of Gaza at the end of 2025 (approximately 1.06 million). This gives 4.69 per cent, equivalent to approximately one in 21 women and girls. The calculation assumes no overlap between the reported deaths and injuries. Population source: PCBS, 8 March 2026.
[3] UN Women estimate based on the IPC Gaza Strip Special Brief, published 13 August 2026. The estimated 702,000 women and girls facing acute food insecurity at crisis-level or worse (IPC Phase 3+) during July–December 2026 is calculated by applying PCBS’s 2025 female population share (49.7 per cent) to the IPC projected caseload of 1,412,421 people. The calculation assumes proportional representation of women and girls across IPC phases and is rounded to the nearest thousand.
IPS UN Bureau